DUI

(No, not Parliament. The Catalan National Art Museum. A real gem!)

No, I didn't get a DUI, but I might get one today. We all might get one. I'm referring, of course, to a "Declaración Unilateral de Independencia" in Catalonia. President Carles Puigdemont is scheduled to address the Catalan parliament this afternoon and the suspense could not be greater. Will he make the declaration? I hope not, because if he does it will turn a bad situation really catastrophic. He will declare independence and announce the creation of the Republic of Catalonia, or something like that. But I doubt it will be "unilateral". My suspicion is he will couch the declaration in all kinds of invitations to the central government to negotiate. There will also likely be many invitations to the international community to collaborate, to help Spain and Catalonia come to an understanding. (The Catalan nationalists have been working hard to internationalize the conflict for many, many years.) How did it come to this? Well, that's a long, long story. Here are just a couple of minimal observations to give you a little bit of context: Catalonia has historically enjoyed a large degree of self-governance, but it has never been a truly independent nation. That may change, but it won't be today, regardless of what Puigdemont ultimately declares. The current system began in 1979 with the approval in referendum of a "estatuto de autonomía". That statute was reformed in 2006 to provide for even greater autonomy. It was approved by both the Catalan parliament, the national parliament in Madrid and by voters in Catalonia (albeit with low participation) in a referendum. And this is where the current mess really gets rolling: the right wing Partido Popular, led by Mariano Rajoy, now Spain's president, brought the new statute to Spain's Constitutional Court, which ultimately declared several articles unconstitutional. Consequently, ever more Catalans lost confidence in their relationship to the central government. Support for independence grew. Identity politics more suffocating. When Rajoy came to power in 2011 he showed no interest in negotiating a new agreement with the Catalan government. All of this political tension between Madrid and Barcelona came to a head on October 1st with the celebration of the referendum on independence. Under Spanish law, the referendum was clearly illegal, but the Catalan government had just passed its own laws to make it legal, laws which were, in turn, immediately declared unconstitutional by Spanish courts.
In my opinion, the core problem right now is that the current pro-independence Catalan government is made up of a coalition of parties that won 47% of the popular vote in last year's Catalan elections. That's hardly a mandate for a unilateral declaration of independence! Based on the numbers, this government does not represent a majority of Catalans. So, "the will of the people" is really not a solid argument. But, the referendum! Here a large majority voted "Yes" to independence. But everyone knows the referendum was plagued with all kinds of problems, even setting aside it's legality. Turn out was very low. Not a great idea to start a new nation based on a referendum that had very low participation (around 42%) and no guarantees of fairness. And this is the legitimacy the Catalan government must rely on, but even they know it's a weak argument. Thus, it seems the dominant argument one hears is simply "we're done here", a sentiment that comes from general disgust with the Spanish government. The sentiment is quite understandable: Rajoy has bungled things horribly and the Catalans' legitimate demand for a real vote on independence is also quite reasonable. But, frustration with the current situation is a weak basis for a declaration of independence, especially when the popular mandate for such a move is tenuous at best.
The problem is, of course, that a unilateral declaration of independence will not bring real independence. At least, not in the short term. Catalonia is simply not prepared or able to make that happen. It will trigger major intervention from Madrid, huge street protests, ever more "social fracture", the acceleration of an already alarming flight of capital, and who knows were it will ultimately lead. I feel sad, very sad, for Cataluña, and especially for Barcelona, wonderful Barcelona.